Up until now, polypropylene imports from the Middle East have not been really significant, averaging only 10 thousand metric tons per month, of which almost all is homopolymer.

Exports of polypropylene, on the other hand, have been and still are an important outlet for West European producers, with the Middle East (including Turkey) an important destination. Of the total 160 thousand metric tons PP that West Europe has exported on average per month in the first ten months of 2007, on average 60 thousand metric tons has been to the Middle East.  62 percent of PP exports to the Middle East are homopolymer with the remaining 38 percent being co-polymer.

In the past, Turkey has taken more than half of the total volumes exported to the Middle East, with considerable volumes also being exported to Israel, Iran and Saudi Arabia.  With 6.5 million metric tons of new, export-oriented capacity being constructed in the Middle East in the next five years, it is unlikely that West Europe will be able to hold on to its exports – at least of general purpose homopolymer – to Turkey and the other countries in the region. 

Furthermore, Northeast Asia is and will be relatively self-sufficient in polypropylene in the next five years due to its own large capacity expansions.  Other regions including West Europe are also adding capacity to cover demand growth.  It is, therefore, not yet entirely clear where the 6.5 million metric tons will end up.  Please feel free to contact me, if you want to hear more. msmith@cmaiglobal.com